Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
